Analyzing Trends in Office Attendance In Major US Markets

Team ACH: Anh, Caden, and Heidi!

Outline



  1. Motivation and Research Question
  2. Data Sourcing
  3. Analysis
  4. Future Directions

Motivation

  • talk about savills’ challenge to us

  • We needed to narrow down and select something to focus on

  • We know with real estate it is important to know WHAT to buy

    • how large of an office?
    • what location? major markets?

  • In order to optimize size of location, you need to know how many people will show up to the office

  • However, modelling this after covid times can be complicated - we are here to do that

Occupancy Rate

  • Predicting who will show up to offices can be hard after covid

  • What if you care about attendance at an office you choose? What if the market you choose to settle in affects who attends work?

  • Using data from Kastle, we talk about the occupancy rate

Major Markets

Figure 1: Major Markets Recorded by Kastle

Office Occupancy

Figure 2: Seasonal Time Series of Occupancy

Office Occupancy: Deseasonalized

Figure 3: Trend Component of Occupancy (After LOESS Decomposition)

Factors That May Affect Office Attendance

  1. Extreme Weather Events
  2. Unemployment Rate
  3. Traffic Congestion
  4. Covid Cases
  5. State Political Affiliation

Example Factor: Political Affiliation

Figure 4: State Political Affiliation

Review Office Occupancy: Deseasonalized

Figure 5: Trend Component of Occupancy (After LOESS Decomposition)

Our Research Question



What variables explain the increasing trend of post-COVID office occupancy across major markets?

Analysis: Method

1

Analysis: Model

2

Analysis: Results

3

Analysis: More Results

4

Conclusions

extra yap: connecting to the main question. What trends explain the trend what is making people return to office, and is it dependent on city

Future Directions


  1. We are very limited by data collection


  1. Prediction for clients’ future Occupancy


  1. Increasing interpretability for clients

Credit

Thanks!